The (Market)Place to Be!

Yesterday was another exceptionally busy day on our side. Today, the powder market took centre stage, with 1,650 MT traded via our books, nearly 600 MT executed through the GFD Marketplace. Butter was quieter, though 220 MT still changed hands, with prices edging lower. Overall, the market feels mixed. SMP prices recovered, but buying interest quickly fades once levels push above €2,200. Meanwhile, cream dropped below €3,000, making butter production feasible at roughly €1,000 below the official butter quotation—which itself also moved lower. All things considered, the January 2026 dairy market continues to surprise.

From a supply-and-demand perspective, the spot market for liquids continues to send very weak signals. Raw milk prices are largely holding between 15–18 ct, although we still hear of spot loads trading below 10 ct.

The weakness in liquid demand is clearly reflected in cream prices. While most official quotations still indicate levels of €3,050 in Western Europe and €3,400 in Eastern Europe, prices softened toward the end of the day. Market talk points to levels as low as €2,900 in Western Europe and €3,200 DAP in Eastern Europe. At €3,200 DAP, Polish producers are now producing butter below a €3,000 cost price. Even so, most producers remain reluctant to sell cheaply produced butter, instead adding to already full warehouses.

SMC and whey concentrate continue to outperform last week's prices. With SMC back above €1,000 and whey concentrate above €800, strong demand for protein powders is providing some upward pull on liquid values. That said, when viewed against historical January divergences between SMC and SMP, SMC prices still appear to have room to move higher.

Commodities: Mixed Picture

The commodities we broker continue to show a mixed picture.

Butter saw limited activity yesterday, though sentiment clearly turned more bearish. Especially on the spot market, buyers are hard to find. Via one of the other brokers, we hear Irish butter traded at €3,600 FCA for March, a level broadly in line with where we currently see buying interest. In contrast, offers for February/March at €3,700 failed to attract demand. Polish producers remain reluctant to sell at lower levels, but given the volumes currently on offer, we would not be surprised to see the first trades below €3,500 before month-end.

Cheese continues to soften slightly. While this is not yet confirmed by major trades, the relatively negative sentiment following the latest GDT can be felt across the curve. February volumes are starting to surface, though buyers remain cautious. There are no heavy stocks to report, but sellers just above €3,000 appear more eager to sell than buyers are to step in. That said, this is still far from a lively market.

Powders once again stole the show. With 1,650 MT traded via our books, we are seeing more partners turning to GFD to verify, benchmark, and execute their trades. Activity included older big bags at €2,050–2,075 FCA France for February, fresh medium heat Codex SMP for March/April at €2,175–2,200, and some non-standardised SMP at €2,225. Momentum in powders remains concentrated within a tight €2,100–2,200 range. Below €2,100, demand is overwhelming, while above €2,200, buying interest fades and sellers quickly reappear. We continue to see a steady flow of powder offers on the GFD Marketplace, which we will elaborate on below.

The (Market)Place to Be

We are proud to see activity on the GFD Marketplace picking up. Not only did volumes increase yesterday, but we also saw new partners logging in, exploring the platform, and actively placing bids, counters, and offers. In addition, more partners are requesting active access, confirming growing engagement across the network.

We are fully aware that the Marketplace is not yet flawless. That said, the feedback received so far is clear, constructive, and already scheduled for implementation in the March release. Further releases throughout the year will continue to make the Marketplace faster, smoother, and more reliable—built for our partners, with our partners.

For those who would like to take a look around, access can be requested via our colleague Twan Schwanen at twan@getfairdairy.nl. A quick call is usually enough to get started. This week alone, Twan onboarded a new partner, guided her through the setup, helped place her first offer, and supported the execution of her first GFD trade within 24 hours of the initial offer. Want to experience the same smooth process? Reach out.

Current Marketplace Activity
At present, the Marketplace shows the following bids and offers:

• Two offers for buttermilk powder (one food, one feed)
• An offer for 72 MT SWP at €1,140 for February, with a bid at €1,025
• A bid for SMP (non-standardised) at €2,200

See the image below for details.

With butter market activity easing somewhat, we are also seeing slightly fewer bids and offers on the platform. That said, the following active bids and offers are currently available for your review.

Final note:
Liquidity may be thinner in parts of the market, but price discovery continues to evolve quickly. As always, we encourage partners to stay close, challenge levels where needed, and use the GFD Marketplace to benchmark and execute with confidence.