Cream Holds While Butter Bends

Yesterday was one of the busiest trading sessions of the year — even with half the market still on holiday. Over 1,100mt of butter changed hands, pushing prices further under pressure. That said, all the action was frontloaded into the morning, leaving the afternoon eerily quiet. Cream firmed slightly and butter quotations in France and Germany went up slightly, which temporarily capped the slide, though buyers continue to scan for cheaper levels further south.

Liquids: Don't Look That Bearish

Strip away the commodity picture and liquids alone would tempt you into bullish territory. Cream surged back above €8,000, with most trades between €8,100–8,200, while raw milk prices ticked higher versus last week, though trades above 50ct remain scarce. Skimmed concentrate ranged €1,950–2,050.

The butter bulls point to cream now trading above the butter equivalent, but this is seasonally normal through to November. Last year’s playbook reminds us: cream held above €8,000 from July into December, peaking at €11,000 mid-November at the height of the butter squeeze.

If cream consolidates between €8,200–8,800, Q4 butter prices around €6,500–6,800 look justified. Stronger cream would drag butter higher; softer cream risks a synchronized slide.

Cheese: Bigger Stocks Are Getting Older

Cheese is under pressure. Last year, both Gouda and Mozzarella rallied from the low €4,000s to nearly €5,000 by late September, squeezed by butter competition for milk. This year is the reverse: Gouda demand is weak, and age is catching up fast. Offers are circulating at 45–55 days, meaning early Q3 production cheese is still looking for a home.

Exports tell the same story: Gouda shipments have fallen to a 5-year low YTD. Mozzarella exports hold up better, but Cheddar and Edam are slipping, while Cheddar imports — especially from NZ — are climbing.

EU production looks heavier across the board, with more milk flowing into commodities. Combine this with sluggish EU demand and a rising import flow, and the setup points clearly to further price pressure to attract buyers.

Today’s market:

• 2 trucks Mozzarella (NL/BE/DE), DAP NL at €3,700 (vs. €3,950 offer)
• 3 trucks Gouda (NL/BE), DAP NL at €3,800 (vs. €3,950 offer)

Butter: Sellers Enter, Buyers Exit

Yesterday’s butter session was one of the most active of the year, and it is not only sentiment is shifting. Sellers are now openly positioning for 2025, while buyers retreat to the sidelines — not abandoning the market, but refocusing further out, with RFQs already for Q1–Q3 2026.

End-users again sought to roll coverage forward, shifting September buys into Q4 or even Q1 2026. Short cover is moving further out, while producers, surprised by strong milk flows in France, NL, and Germany, are being forced to channel more into commodity output. Net effect: the market is building length in butter, while shorts are getting pushed down the curve.

Spot butter is now at €6,700 (Sept/Q1), with Q1 contracts just above €6,600 — the lowest levels we’ve seen in over a year.

This morning’s buyer interest:

• 6 loads Irish butter, Sept, FCA IE €6,650
• 6 loads Polish Sweet Cream, Sept €6,700
• 6 loads NL/DE/BE, Sept €6,600
• 6 loads NL/DE/BE, Q4 €6,700
• 6 loads NL/DE/BE, Q1 €6,550
• 6 loads Irish butter, Dec €6,500
• 6 loads Polish Sweet Cream, Q1 €6,300

👉 In short: liquids want to rally, commodities want to sink. Butter sellers are hoping for a Q4 rally, but can see them doubting their strategy. Cheese is heavy, and cream seems to be the referee everyone’s watching.