Commodities Fall as Liquids Flow

Another very busy day yesterday at Get Fair Dairy. The market continues its slide with cheese prices taking a sharp step down, SMP prices following yesterday’s GDT move, and butter dropping further. Most notable, however, was the fast decline in liquid prices. With cream reported as low as €7,100 and raw milk below 45ct, it is difficult to reconcile this with the so-called seasonal low point.

We are nearing the seasonal dip in milk intake in Europe over the coming weeks. Yet anyone looking at liquid price developments would hardly believe it. Cream took a beating: on Tuesday morning offers stood at €7,800, but by yesterday we already saw Eastern European offers at €7,350. By the end of the day the market was testing a new psychological resistance, with nearby loads trading between €7,100 and €7,200. Some partners now expect cream to fall below €7,000 if the current pressure persists. Butter producers are keeping output minimal—there appears to be little demand for butter at present.

Raw milk remains ample. With German prices under 45ct and French levels approaching 40ct, current cooperative payout levels are far out of reach. Only SMP has shown relative stability, with prices ranging between €1,900 and €2,050.

Butter: Down on a Floor

Butter prices continued to slip. For September, NL/DE/BE started at €6,425 but quickly fell to €6,300 as bids evaporated and offers accumulated. Q4 values eased from €6,300 in the morning to €6,250 in the afternoon. Q1 NL/DE/BE traded down to €6,175. The lowest trades were Irish/Danish/Swedish butter for October/November at €6,125–€6,150, while Polish butter for H1 2026 moved at €6,100.

Some producers are finally offering forward positions, with Dutch offers for year-end and early next year at €6,300, while Danish producers are closer to €6,200 for the first six months of 2026. Even at these levels, uptake has been limited.

Quotations disappointed. German quotes came at €6,850, while the French refrained from quoting at all. It highlights the disconnect between futures, brokers, platforms like Vesper, and committee quotations. Notably, French producers have already sold significant volumes to multiple end users and traders, yet still decline to quote. Only the reliable Dutch came in near true market levels, around €6,460.

Cheese: Dropped Down

The cheese market is following liquids and butter lower. Futures saw heavy losses, with Gouda Q4 just over €3,600 and Mozzarella slipping to €3,550. Cheddar curd is changing hands at €4,000 and Emmental slightly above €4,500. Even premium products are being discounted, and rebuilding the bid side remains a challenge.

Powders: Sellers Come Down, Buyers Step Back

Powders repeated their familiar dance. After some sellers lowered offers, buyers simply retreated further, leaving the bid-ask gap wide open. Current codex offers are around €2,250 FCA, with Q4 Belgium origins at €2,275. But even sub-€2,300, buyers are showing little interest.

Final Note:
Markets remain under strong downward pressure across the board, with liquidity abundant and confidence fragile. Buyers are holding back, and sellers are forced to chase them lower. This creates an environment where psychological levels, not fundamentals, are steering short-term direction.