Butter Breaks, Where is the Floor?

After a quiet start to November, the second week decided to wake everyone up. Volumes spiked again — over 3,000 mt traded in just three days. Butter crashed the party (and the market), dropping below €5,000 across the curve until September next year. Nearby levels are pushing toward €4,500, and even there, demand is missing in action. Offers are outpacing bids by miles, and this downtrend looks far from done. Cheese, however, is dancing to a different tune. Spot prices jumped €200+ for immediate delivery, though December and Q1 offers are starting to show, while bids don't follow. Still, cheese is clearly the bullish corner of the board. Powders? Let’s just say — watching paint dry is sometimes more thrilling.

A Bullish Start, a Slippery Middle

We entered November with a rare touch of optimism. Normally, we’re the bears in the room, but the season looked set for some upward energy — seasonal tight liquid markets, rising seasonal demand, new retail contracts... all the right ingredients.

And to be fair, some bullishness showed up: raw milk ticked back over 30ct, SMC climbed from barely €1,000 to €1,250–€1,350. But cream traders clearly missed the memo — prices for this and next week are down to €5,600–€5,700, and “Christmas Cream” (weeks 52–1) is already under €4,800.

Parallels Across the Pond

It’s maybe too easy to point to the U.S., but the resemblance is striking: more milk, more solids, more fat — and less demand. The EU urgently needs outlets outside the bloc to stop butter’s freefall. Cheese has found some traction abroad, and powders too, but butter exports remain limited. The first signals of Middle East demand are there, though mostly for 2025. Ramadan-related demand seems done for both powders and butter this year.

Butter: Eyes on €4,000

Back to our natural habitat — the bearish view. Supply for November–December remains strong, and Q1 sales still need to be placed from the producer's side. Combine that with soft demand, and it’s hard not to see EU butter testing €4,000 as a floor soon. Offers are coming in from all corners — Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Germany, France, and the UK, all offers are coming in between € 4500 and € 4600 — as producers prefer not to carry stock into 2026. Traders will only absorb volume with a meaningful discount versus Q1, while end users keep pushing purchases into next year.

Yesterday alone, over 800 mt of NL/DE/BE butter traded at €4,600–€4,700, with producers matching the mentioned lows. To make Q4 goods move, we expect traders or end users to ask for a €300+ discount to make up for transport, storage and financing costs. For non-core brands (Portugal, France, Italy), that discount needs to be even bigger. End-of-year transfers should land around €4,250–€4,300 soon.

The final push lower may come from Eastern Europe. Cream there held above €6,000 until last week, keeping butter above €5,000 — but as cream slips below western levels and Christmas cream drops under €4,800, block butter offers from the east are coming. Competing with Irish winter butter and southern European lots, we might well see sub-€4,000 trades within weeks.

• November/December offers for Irish/Dansih/Swedish/French/Portuguese butter around € 4600, or welcome to receive bids. We do not have any bids against that.
• Q1 NL/DE/BE offer at € 4625 and bid at € 4580
• Q1 Polish SC bid at € 4500 and offer at € 4650
• Q2 NL/DE/BE offer at € 4800 and bid at € 4750
• Q2 Polish SC bid at € 4650
• Q3 NL/DE/BE offer at € 4975 and bid at € 4850

Cheese: Short Squeeze — Then What?

Cheese is the polar opposite of butter right now. With export channels active and traders running lean books, stock is tight and the market firm. Mozzarella booked between €3,075–€3,130, Gouda at €3,175 — though finding buyers at those levels is tough. Only short-covering buyers are biting. For December and Q1, more sellers are stepping in, eager to sell into this mini rally

We expect offers for Q1 on cheese to be:

• 9 loads of Gouda for Q1 at € 3150
• 9 loads of Edam for Q1 at € 3100
• 9 loads of Mozzarella for Q1 at € 3050

Powders: Still Stuck

After an active start to the month, powder markets slowed again. Sellers are clearly reaching higher now that exports look better (helped by a weaker USD), but they may be getting ahead of themselves. The sentiment justifies a mild uptick, but the bid-offer gap is too wide — and that’s freezing trade. We expect to start the market with:

Offers​​​

• 500mt, Q4, West EU High Protein SMP (unstandardised), min. 37% as is, 25kgs, fresh, €2150 DAP NL
• 300mt, Q1, FR/DE origin, SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, incl standard docs + labels, €2100 fca FR/DE
• 300mt, Q2, FR/DE origin, SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, incl standard docs + labels, €2180 fca FR/DE
• 300mt, Q1, German codex SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, incl export docs, €2125 ex plant
• ⁠300mt, Q1 West EU codex SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, incl export docs, €2100 fca nl/be/de/fr
• 300mt, Q2, SMP MH, fresh, 25kgs, West EU, incl standard export docs, €2190 ex
• 300mt, H1, SMP MH, max 04 months at delivery, DE/BE origin (premium brands), 25kgs/bb in sellers option, €2150 DAP NL
• ⁠200mt, Q4, DMK SMP MH, fresh, 25kgs with standard export docs, €2150 fca DE
• 200mt, Q4, Limelco SMP MH, fresh, 25kgs with standard export docs, €2125 fca BE
• 200mt, Jan ETD, West EU SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, with standard docs, €2110 ex
• 150mt, Q4, Lakeland (N-IE) SMP MH, incl standard export docs, €2100 ex UK
• 100mt, Jan ETD, SMP LH, Euroserum, fresh, 25kgs incl standard export docs + labels, €2125 ex fr
• ⁠100mt, Q4, West EU SMP LH (nl/be/de/fr), fresh, in BB, €2100 fca NL

Bids:

• 400mt Nov/Dec/Jan, SMP MH, Solarec, incl standard export docs + labels, 25kgs, fresh, €2120 ex plant
• 300mt, Q1, any German SMP MH (codex), fresh, 25kgs with standard docs + labels, €2075 ex plant
• 300mt, Q1, West EU SMP LH (codex, fresh, 25kgs, with standard docs + Labels, €2020 ex plant
• 300mt, Q4, West EU High protein SMP (unstandardised) min. 36% as is, 25kgs, €2070 DAP NL
• 300mt Q4, BMP, fresh, DMK/Muller/Arla/Euroserum, incl export docs + labels, 25kgs fresh, €2150 ex plant
• 150mt, H1, DMK/Frischli/Solarec/Rucker/Uelzena SMP MH, 25kgs, max 04 months old at ETA, €2125 DAP NL
• ⁠100mt, Q4/Jan ETD, Algeria SMP MH, 25kgs, incl gmp halal/export docs/labels/pallets, €2125 ex nl/be
• 100mt, Q4/Jan, Solarec BMP, 25kgs, fresh, €2200 ex plant
• 50mt, Nov ETD, Limelco SMP MH, 25kgs, fresh, incl standard docs, €2070 ex BE
• 50mt, Q4/Jan ETD, Algeria SMP LH, 25kgs incl gmp halal/export docs/labels/pallets, €2125 ex nl/be

Final Note

The market’s mood has clearly shifted — from a hopeful start to a reality check halfway through November. Butter continues to slide with no real buyers in sight, cheese enjoys its short squeeze but faces questions on sustainability, and powders… well, they’re just politely waiting for direction.

Liquidity is back, volatility too, and sentiment feels heavier by the day. Unless exports suddenly light up the board, the path of least resistance for butter remains down. Even the buyers seem unhappy with the heavy tone, every purchase of the last months is a few thousand euros too expensive per truck compared to this market. Some even have contracts € 2500,- per mt above the current market price in their books. But remember, November’s not done yet — and neither is the market’s sense of humor.