A Burst Of Butter Business

After a week of low activity and almost no movement on butter prices, the market became active yesterday. With over 600mt of butter brokered, the market experienced a burst of activity. Prices appear to be trending down slightly, with prices flat for the period June - September on NL/DE/BE origin and slightly lower for Irish/French origins. In the cheese market, there is an increase in buyer inquiries, though the focus is more on post-summer purchases rather than immediate needs. The powder market saw the ONIL announcement, and it remains to be seen if the rumor has already lifted prices enough, or if prices will continue to rise.

Market sentiment among some partners is turning less bullish (or more bearish) as milk collections in France gain momentum compared to last year. Recent numbers show almost a 3% increase versus the previous year. Admittedly, 2023 was a particularly bad year for French milk collection, making it a comparison between a bad year and an even worse one. French milk collections are still below the five-year average and below levels seen in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The 3% increase can be viewed as a signal of recovery, but not everyone sees these numbers as bullish.

We expect more clarity on the spot market for liquids today, with early indications suggesting a stable continuation from the previous week.

Butter: A Burst of Activity

Yesterday marked a very active start to the week, with over 600mt of butter changing hands. Sellers seemed eager to sell as their summer break approaches, preferring not to carry the burden of unsold positions in such an uncertain market. With increased pressure among sellers, the price curve for butter flattened. NL/DE/BE butter traded flat at €6600 for the coming months, while Irish butter traded slightly lower.

We see the supply drying up a bit and expect the market to find a floor unless more sellers become active. We expect to have the following offers:

• 6 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen Q3 at €6630
• 6 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen Q4 at €6630
• 2 trucks of Spanish butter for September at €6850
• 2 trucks of Polish Sweet Cream for June at €6500

We have buyers for:

• 6 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen for October/November at €6600
• 6 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen for August/September at €6575
• 4 trucks of Polish Sweet Cream butter for July at €6300

Cheese: Curious about Q4

The cheese market did not show much excitement. Buyers and sellers seem to have completed their transactions for immediate needs, but there is more interest in the last quarter of the year. With some bearish signals, buyers are looking for cheaper offers for Q4. We are seeking offers for:

• 9 loads of mozzarella NL/DE/BE for Q4 below €4000
• 6 loads of mozzarella NL/DE/BE for August/September around €3950
• 6 loads of gouda NL/DE for Q4 at €3950
• 2 loads of cheddar curd for July at €4000 DAP NL

We have offers for:

• 4 loads of gouda for July/August at €4075

Powders: ONIL is the News

In the powder market, the news is that ONIL is active. Although rumors had circulated, this usually has a bullish effect. Our partners have decided not to offer anything for now, preferring to see the effects of the tender. Buyers are not eager to bid the market higher, resulting in a quiet marketplace with few concrete bids and offers.