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Sideways

2 min read
  • Butter
  • Cheese
  • Powder
  • Liquids

Yesterday the market showed its sideways side. Only SMP prices showed a slightly more bearish move, but for the rest, all commodities look to be trading sideways. We keep our update short for today.

Liquid prices seem more stable than anticipated by many. The pressure felt last week seems more manageable this week. We see raw milk prices trading well above 35ct dap NL again and cream prices are keeping steady around € 6400,-. On SMC we did hear some weaker signals with prices ranging € 1200 up to € 1400, but prices seems stable to slightly firmer compared to last week. A slightly less bearish liquid market seems to be affecting the other commodities as well.

Butter: Stronger Sideways

On butter, we see stronger sideways moves. It looks like the back of the market (H2) is trending higher. We see more buyers and fewer sellers, and we understand EEX futures are trading up as well. Sales liquidity for that period seems low. For Q2 we did see a bit more offers. It seems German producers are coming down what to levels of € 5800-€ 5850. The Germans do seem to be the cheapest sellers on the Western EU market. French, Danish, Belgian, Dutch and Irish butter offers from producers still start around € 5900,-. or higher even.

We did trade some volumes yesterday all ranging within the € 5850 and € 5900 range, this seems to be in line with the prices of last week. We ended the day with the following offers:

  • 4 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen € 5900 for May / June
  • 4 trucks NL/DE/BE fresh/frozen € 6200 for August/September
  • 2 trucks Polish Sweet Cream, GFSI € 5700 for May

Cheese: Sideways

The cheese market keeps moving sideways. We see more sellers, but the offers remain the same. Yesterday we accidentally indicated we had bids, but we had offers for the following prices. Apologies for the mix-up. We start again with the following indications:

  • 4 loads of Emmental for grating at €4500
  • 4 loads of Mozzarella for May at €3525
  • 6 loads of Gouda for May/June at €3835
  • 6–9 loads of Gouda for Q3 at €3875
  • 6 loads of Mozzarella for Q3 at €3750
  • 6–9 loads of Cheddar curd for May/June at €4025

Powders: Keep going lower

We see the powder market trending lower and lower. We mainly move older material, although fresh material is offered as well at discount prices. We traded some non-standardized N-IE 36% protein at € 2220 DAP NL and some codex big bags for July at € 2200,-. We understand that futures are slightly under pressure, but they are holding up better than the physical market. We expect to start the day with offers for:

  • 450mt of BC spec at € 2380 for Q4
  • 200mt of SMP Codex, West EU at € 2200
  • 200mt of SMP non-standerdized DAP NL at € 2225

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