Bullied Bulls Bullying Back

"The market is full of surprises!" A phrase we’ve gotten all too familiar with, but this week, it rings especially true. After a summer of bullish rallies, the market cooled down, only to spring back to life in recent weeks. During the dip, buyers and sellers got vocal. Buyers, feeling sellers had overplayed their hand on the way up, took the chance to remind them—more than once—not to be so greedy. Naturally, a few sellers weren’t thrilled with the constant reminders, but now the tables have turned. The bulls are back, and they’re taking a little revenge, pulling offers and pushing up prices. “They should have bought when it was cheap…” The market’s rule of thumb? Today’s losers may be tomorrow’s winners, and vice versa. But with rising trades in raw milk, cream, and a strong GDT, the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.

Looking at the liquid market, we’re seeing a bullish trend. Raw milk prices are edging up from last week, and the cream buying frenzy started early. Prices over €10,300 FCA and €10,500 DAP suggest this week may break a few records. Traders tell us it’s sellers themselves buying back the cream, competing with their own customers. If we convert cream at €10,300 into butter, we’d be looking at prices above €8,500. No huge SMC trades yet, but if interest continues, we could see some upward movement there too.

GDT Bulls Showing Who’s Boss

The GDT results? Not much to feed the bears. A 4.8% increase even outpaced our bullish predictions, with AMF up 4.6% and butter surging 8.3%, driven by solid demand. Solarec butter prices for January are up €820 per mt compared to three weeks ago, and December sits at €7,865. But it’s not just EU butter prices on the rise—NZ butter demand is strong, especially as nearby buyers jostle for the few available loads.nCheese prices rose slightly, up 4% or about $1,000 since July, though still shy of 2022’s record highs. With SMP, WMP, and butter all on the upswing, cheese prices need to keep pace.

SMP and WMP each rose over 4%, though some had hoped for even more. EU SMP saw a notable jump, confirming the bullish tone we’ve been feeling in recent days. Despite NZ’s high milk production, demand remains strong, echoing what some EU partners expected—more milk doesn’t necessarily mean lower prices.

Butter: Buyers Chasing Last Week’s Prices

"Predictable yet surprising", as one partner who deals a lot with the French and German bakery industry put it. They brushed off offers as the market trended down, but now they’re scrambling to confirm last week’s prices—which have, of course, moved up. Yesterday, we moved nearly 500mt of butter, mostly for Nov-Dec collection, showing there’s plenty of demand but little supply. Irish butter is the main option for now, with Q1 prices also on the rise. EEX futures hit €7,480, and NL/DE/BE butter trades at €7,400 for Q1. Irish winter butter trades between €7,500 and €7,600 for December, with November around €7,800 FCA NL.

If cream prices stay high—and there’s no reason to think they won’t—expect butter prices to climb through this year and next. Spot prices may well surpass €8,000, and Q1 prices likely won’t fall more than €200-€300 below today’s spot market.

We’re set to kick off with the following markets…

NL/DE/BE

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
Nov-Dec	€7700	44	€7900	88
November	€7800	88	€7950	132
Q1	€7380	132	€7450	66
Q2	€6900	132	€7300	66

Irish Butter

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
November	€7650	44	€7800	88
December	€7500	44	€7750	110
Q1	€7100	132	€7350	132

Sweet Cream Butter

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
Nov-Dec	€7750	44	€8000	44
Q1	€7200	132	€7400	132

Cheese: Who Will Blink First?

So, here’s the setup: tight butter and liquid markets, higher SMP and WMP prices internationally, rising GDT cheese prices, and… a stable cheese market in the EU. Prices? Barely moving, at least for bids. Offers, however, are clearly rising, and fewer sellers are coming to us for bids. Those who do are moving up their offers—no one’s expecting prices to drop. Gouda, Edam, and Mozzarella prices should all climb, but buyer activity remains slow. It feels similar to the butter market three weeks ago—buyers holding out, hoping for lower prices, but sellers have little reason to budge.

Gouda

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
Nov-Dec	€4300	44	€4600	44
Q1	€4200	132	€4500	132
Q2	€4100	132	€4500	132

Mozzarella

Period	Bid	Size	Offer	Size
November	€4150	44	€4350	44
Nov-Dec	€4150	44	€4300	88
Q1	€4100	132	€4350	88

Powders: Bullish Confirmation?

For anyone looking at the GDT results, it’s clear: the market is turning more bullish. Higher prices for BMP, WMP, and SMP signal strong buying activity. As we head into the high production period, NZ milk is ramping up, but prices still managed to climb over 4%.

In the EU, more buyers are coming forward, hunting for last-minute deals with minimal success. Non-standardized prices are on the rise, and offers are thinning. Even older Codex material is pushing higher, as sellers aim for better prices despite the product’s age.

With ONIL rumors stirring, rising futures, and a solid GDT, the market is finding its spark again. We’re here to help buyers and sellers connect, with markets opening as follows.

We’re starting the week with sellers for...

Product	Origin	Volume	Period	Price	Incoterm
FCMP	IRL	88	Nov	4250	FCA NL
SWP	Spanish	150	Nov-Dec	900	FCA SP
D40	Spanish	200	Dec-March	975	FCA SP
Codex BigBags	French	100	November	2450	FCA FR
SMP Codex	Belgium	100	November	2475	FCA NL
FCMP Instant 2024 production	EU	100	November	4175	DAP NL

We would have the following bids

Product	Origin	Volume	Period	Price	Incoterm
FCMP BigBags	EU	44	Nov-Dec	4100	FCA NL
SMP Nonstand	EU15	100	Oct	2450	DAP PL
SMP BC Spec	EU	300	Q1	2550	FCA
SMP Codex for ONIL	Limelco	100	November	2430	FCA